Chinese Grand Prix

The values for Saturday practice will be late (I’m fencing all day Saturday) so may not be accurate.

Fastest Friday Practice Price Fastest Saturday Practice Price Fastest Qualifying Price
Lewis Hamilton 8/11 Lewis Hamilton 4/9 Lewis Hamilton 4/9
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet £1.73 Amount won/lost on a £1 bet £1.44 Amount won/lost on a £1 bet £1.44
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet £17.27 Amount won/lost on a £10 bet £14.44 Amount won/lost on a £10 bet £14.44
Season Total £1 bets £1.30 Season Total £1 bets £6.73 Season Total £1 bets £1.27
Season Total £10 bets £12.98 Season Total £10 bets £67.30 Season Total £10 bets £12.77

Bahrain Grand Prix

Fastest Friday Practice Price Fastest Saturday Practice Price Fastest Qualifying Price
Lewis Hamilton 4/7 Lewis Hamilton 2/7 Nico Rosberg 10/11
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet £1.57 Amount won/lost on a £1 bet £1.29 Amount won/lost on a £1 bet -£1
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet £15.71 Amount won/lost on a £10 bet £12.86 Amount won/lost on a £10 bet -£10
Season Total £1 bets -£0.43 Season Total £1 bets £5.29 Season Total £1 bets -£0.17
Season Total £10 bets -£4.29 Season Total £10 bets £52.86 Season Total £10 bets -£1.67

This is interesting.  At this point, admittedly only 3 races into a 19 Grand Prix season, only one of these betting strategies is in profit.  Possibly this is both because of Mercedes’s dominance (and therefore the poor odds offered by the bookies) and the small size of the difference in performance between the two Mercedes.  If Nico Rosberg had beaten Hamilton in qualifying at Malaysia, the last column would look very different.  Obviously, the old ‘if ifs and ands were pots and pans’ applies, but I think the table would be very different in a team with a clear number 1 and number 2 driver.

Malaysian Grand Prix

Fastest Friday Practice Price Fastest Saturday Practice Price Fastest Qualifying Price
Nico Rosberg 2/1 Nico Rosberg 7/2 Hamilton 5/6
Amount won/lost on a £1 bet -£1 Amount won/lost on a £1 bet -£1 Amount won/lost on a £1 bet £1.83
Amount won/lost on a £10 bet -£10 Amount won/lost on a £10 bet -£10 Amount won/lost on a £10 bet £18.33
Season Total £1 bets -£2 Season Total £1 bets £4 Season Total £1 bets £0.83
Season Total £10 bets -£20 Season Total £10 bets £40 Season Total £10 bets £8.33