No community view because community view always skews peculiar when we get down to two teams.
The network diagrams look like this:
Unlabelled network diagram
Labelled network diagram
Chelsea are the only team guaranteed to have a winner representing them as 4 England players (Millie Bright, Jess Carter, Fran Kirby and Bethany England) and 1 German player (Ann-Katrin Berger) play for them.
Despite that, they are not the team with the most players left in. They’re not even in the top three. The top three are Manchester City with 9 players, VfL Wolfsburg with 8 and Bayern Munich with 7.
Me, I am just looking forward to the final because it looks like it will be a cracking match.
The rate of withdrawals really went up in the last week of the Tour.
Kaplan Meier of whole race
Kaplan Meier results for 2020, 2021 and 2022 compared
You can see that by the end, 2022’s withdrawals are almost the same as 2021’s. The main difference is in the Did Not Start-type withdrawals, which were mostly due to the COVID protocols.
Pie chart of all withdrawals
The percentage of Did Not Start the stage was really high this year – 69% vs. 30-33% in the previous two years, which again suggests COVID hitting hard.
When the withdrawals happened also suggests the COVID effect – normally when a team lose a rider they start losing other riders too because of the strains of maintaining performance with fewer riders but this time it’s just been a steady drip, drip, drip of withdrawals.
Kaplan Meier of riders divided by team
That can also be seen when you look at the withdrawals by stage, either by order of stage or by how many riders dropped out on each stage.
Pie chart of withdrawals by stage
Pie chart of withdrawals by stage, ranked by number of withdrawals
Historically one or two stages have most of the withdrawals but this time the withdrawals really were quite evenly spread, with 1 stage losing 6 riders, then 1 stage with 5, 2 stages with 4, 3 stages with three, 4 stages with 2 and 2 stages where 1 rider dropped out.
Type of withdrawals by the week they happened in:
Pie chart showing when the DNS withdrawals happened
Did not start the stage-type withdrawals increased every week.
Pie chart showing when mid-stage abandonments happened
The mid-stage abandonments had almost the opposite pattern.
Pie chart showing when Over the Time Limit withdrawals happened
There were only 2 Over the Time Limit withdrawals, 1 in week 3 and 1 in week 4.
So, what can I summarise – 2021 no longer looks like the outlier in terms of withdrawals, 2020 does, but that may be because of circumstance and COVID.
As we have a women’s Tour de France this year, I will also look at the rate in that event, and I will also crunch the numbers for the Giro Donne to see which rate is more common.
Mostly I’m happy to hear that Leuven signed Nicky Evrard to a fully pro contract before the tournament because otherwise I’d have to complain about the player of the match for one quarterfinal (and, let’s be honest, someone in with a shout of being Belgian player of the tournament) was only semi-pro like most of the rest of her team. There is still a much larger divide between the “big” footballing nations and the “small” footballing nations in the women’s game, but hopefully the success of Euro 2022 might help close the gap.
Following the quarterfinals, the network diagram looks like this:
Network diagram of the remaining teams
Labelled network diagram of the remaining teams
Sweden are now the national team nearest the centre, while BK Häcken are the club team closest to the centre.
As so many Barcelona players play for Spain, Barcelona is no longer the club team represented by the most players. It is now VfL Wolfsburg, with 9, followed by Bayern Munich and Chelsea with 8 and Paris Saint Germain with 7.
The community view looks like this:
Community view of the network diagram
Labelled community view of the network diagram
There are 5 communities, 1 for each country and 1 for Everton, possibly because they’re the only club team evenly split between countries (neither of which is England, oddly).
One thing I forgot to say in the first post was that every team had at least 1 player playing in their home league and at least 1 player playing abroad which might explain why, even when there were 16 teams, it looked quite spread out.
Now that we’re down to 8 teams, it is really spread out.
The Netherlands are the country closest to the centre, while Wolfsburg or Ajax are the club team closest to the centre.
Wolfsburg are the club team with the most players remaining with 12, followed by Barcelona with 11 and then Bayern Munich and Manchester City with 10. Juventus have completely fallen away in terms of most players left because of how many of their players exited with Italy.
The community view is split into 8 communities, the same as the number of teams left.
I admit to being surprised that Belgium have got through, given where they were on the outskirts of the diagram.
From what I know of football, I am not looking forward to Austria vs Germany game, because I feel it will end badly for unsere Mädel (listen, if they have no official nickname but the men’s team are unsere Burschen, I am going to have to invent one). The diagram is also not optimistic.
I am looking forward to Netherland vs France, because that could be ridiculously good.
In terms of withdrawals, week 3 hasn’t been much worse than week 2.
Withdrawals by stage number
Stages by number of withdrawals
We’ve also had our first over-the-time limit withdrawal (because the rules are an ass). (Yes, I know, rules are rules but … full Morkov being cut story here.)
Withdrawals by type
Withdrawals are reasonably well-spread out through the teams:
Withdrawals:
Bar chart showing withdrawals by team
Withdrawals as percentage:
Withdrawals per team as percentage
Although the withdrawals are reasonably evenly spread by stage and by team, in the team Kaplan Meier, you can really see stage 15 happening to Jumbo Visma.
Kaplan Meier divided by teams
The overall Kaplan Meier curve shows the slow but constant attrition.
Overall Kaplan Meier
Of interest is that the 2022 withdrawals are now, once again, almost exactly tracking the 2020 withdrawals, strongly suggesting the 2021 rate of withdrawals was an outlier.
Comparison of Kaplan Meiers from 2020, 2021 and 2022
Just once, I’d like to be able to have a completely happy line for a grand prix (yes, I know I had them up to April but I am a Ferrari fan and we are impossible and demanding).
Because yay, glorious Leclerc victory, with multiple overtakes.
But on the other hand, Carlos go boom! And very nearly ended up crispy!! Dear marshals at Spielberg, that everything is on a slope and that these cars have no handbrake are both known things – why were you not ready!!!
I am very excited for France despite the circuit and it being The Migraine Inducer ™.
This week, the withdrawals came as a steady drip, drip, drip.
Bar chart showing number of riders still in per team
Riders left in as a percentage of starting riders
Types of withdrawals:
Types of withdrawals in week 2
There were no withdrawals due to riders being over the time limit. 55% of the withdrawals were due to riders not starting stages, and 45% were mid-stage abandonments.
The withdrawals are spread out amongst the teams and stages. No team has lost more than 1 rider, and those stages were riders have withdrawn, 2-4 riders have withdrawn per stage.
Withdrawals by stage:
Number of withdrawals by stage
Stages ordered by number of withdrawals:
Stages ordered by number of withdrawals
Team Kaplan Meier:
Team Kaplan Meier
The overall Kaplan Meier looks like this:
Overall Kaplan Meier
It does help to answer the question posed in this post, as to whether or not the 2021 Tour rate of attrition was worse than usual.
Comparing the 2020, 2021 and 2022 Kaplan Meier charts, 2020 and 2022 almost completely overlap at this point, while the 2021 line is worse.
Comparison of the Kaplan Meiers from 2020, 2021 and 2022
This was supposed to be ready for the first game, but 1) I thought the first game was on the 7th of July, and 2) I thought the 7th of July was today
For the first network diagram view, I’ve gone back to an older style of presentation. Because the Women’s Euros is smaller than the Men’s (16 teams vs 24), and because there are fewer teams that join players from different nations, this view, not distributed by attraction, still works giving clear separation of teams, which you wouldn’t really get if you used this on the Men’s Euros.
Unlabelled network diagram
When labels are added, it looks like this
Labelled network diagram
Spain are the national team closest to the centre, and either Hegerberg or Barcelona are the club team closest to the centre.
Juventus are the club team represented by the most players with 15, followed by Barcelona with 14. They had been together on 15 players before Alexia Putellas had to withdraw injured from the Spanish squad (that’s what you call one heck of a player to miss).
Following them are Bayern Munich and VfL Wolfsburg on 13 players.
If you want to look at the more expanded diagrams, they are here
Unlabelled expanded diagram
Labelled expanded diagram
You can see that the less expanded view actually makes it easier to see that Finland, Northern Ireland, Portugal and Belgium are the outlying teams.
Looking at the communities view, it looks like this:
Unlabelled community view of the network diagram
Labelled community view of the network diagram
Sweden and Denmark form one community, and Iceland and Norway also form one community. I have to admit I am surprised that there isn’t just one giant Nordic block, given how inter-related the players from those teams are. I am also surprised that Austria and Germany are not one block, again given how many of the Austrian players play for German teams.
It will be interesting to see how the diagrams develop.
But, I hear you say, your team won, why are so distraught? And why are you handing out red cards like confetti?
Because we may have won but it was possibly the most spectacular example of a sporting pyrrhic victory I have seen.
They screwed up the one important decision they had to make (team orders or no team orders), managing to confound the driver nearest to winning the championship (although stop sulking Charles, if you were that much faster, just overtake him in the straights). It means the team couldn’t take full advantage of Red Bull having an off day.
All of this overshadows the lovely Carlos Sainz jnr’s first F1 race win. I want to enjoy Carlos doing well. He is a lovely young man. He drives for my team. Stop overshadowing his big day.
Due to the Tour de France’s Danish excursion, it’s been a shortened first week, with 3 days of racing followed by a rest travel day, so not the usual 7+ days of the first “week”.
Possibly because of the shortness of “week 1” or the relatively gentle stage profiles, there have been no withdrawals, which is different to previous years (2020 and 2021 for comparison).
fulltimesportsfan 