Tag: r stats

Saints Ahoy – Visualisations from game 6 and the season to date – now with the Challenge Cup

I was torn about including the Challenge Cup matches in this analysis. Because it’s supposed to be covering the League, and the Cup is separate from the League.

On the other hand, as L pointed out when I asked, Rugby League is not like football; because the Super League teams only join the cup in the 6th round, there isn’t as much squad rotation. Therefore, I am going to include the Challenge Cup games.

Of course, the minute I do that, Saints don’t play two of their previous “always presents”, Makinson and Dodd, in the Challenge Cup match against Leeds. Dodd was explained as a precautionary, but I’m not sure if an explanation was ever given for Makinson’s absence. Saints also played Clark and Mbye together, which is also going to confuse the diagrams.

This was the second away match against Leeds in a row, and sure, Saints had beaten them in the League (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/leeds-rhinos-v-saints-2024-03-15/) but I then had the fear over the Challenge Cup match.

Saints won (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/03/22/saints-progress-to-challenge-cup-quarter-finals/)

The changes to the team meant the “play together when Saints score in game 6” matrix looks like this:

There is a cluster of dark purple always together of Whitley, Welsby, Mbye, Matautia, Lomax, Hurrell, Bennison and Blake. Then there is the orange of Delaney, Bell and Clark. Sironen and Wingfield are the next level of orange down, but they are split by a yellow-orange Batchelor. Lees at the top is the next orange, between Lees and Sironen are the palest, Knowles and Walmsley.

The most interesting thing to me is that the crossing point for Batchelor, Wingfield, Delaney, Bell and Clark and Knowles and Walmsley is so pale, suggesting that those two don’t play on the pitch with the others when Saints score.

Because this was the second match of Percival’s ban (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/04/05/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-4-and-the-season-to-date/), Lomax who took over the kicking duties from Percival really has shot up the “Point-scoring moments, season to date” chart.

Bar chart. Percival still has the most with 10. Lomax now has 8. They are followed on 4 by Welsby, Makinson and Dodd, then Whitley and Bennison on 3, Walmsley and Clark on 2, then Mbye, Matautia, Knowles and Blake on 1.

In the point-scoring moments present for diagram, for the season to date, the Whitley, Welsby, Lomax, Dodd and Makinson group has been broken up.

Bar chart - Whitley, Welsby and Lomax are the only players present for all point-scoring moments. Blake has been present for 40. Then come Makinson and Dodd. On the bottom end, Batchelor is finally present (yay!), then Davies and Knowles.

The dendrogram has become very complicated.

Deliberately not writing every players name. There are now three clusters. At the bottom, there are Lees, Knowles, Walmsley and Davies, the lesser used props. Then there is a frequently present group that are not tightly clustered, and finally Mbye and Batchelor stuck out at the top.

Which also makes the matrix complicated.

The purple cluster is now only Whitley, Welsby and Lomax. The two dark red patches are where their lines cross those of the other players who play often. The dark orange is the players one step less frequent. There is one sticky out dark orange square for where Sironen and Clark cross. The medium orange are the next step down. The medium orange chunk is broken up by a line of yellow for Percival, thanks to him being subbed off early in games and because he missed two matches suspended. Lees and Walmsley are the next palest, then Mbye, Knowles, Davies and Batchelor.

As well as Sironen and Clark’s crossing point being darker than their surrounding area, suggesting they play together more often, so is Clark and Lees and Walmsley and Sironen, while Walmsley and Clark, Clark and Delaney and Percival and Blake have paler crossings than expected.

The network diagram looks like this:

There is a central cluster of Welsby, Whitley and Lomax, surrounded by an outer ring of (clockwise from top) Dodd, Sironen, Clark, Blake, Bennison, Hurrell, Bell and Makinson. Outside them to the left are Wingfield and Delaney, and Matautia to the bottom. Sticking out at the top is Percival, then Walmsley, Lees and Knowles to the right, and Mbye at the bottom left.

It’s now 19 players. It’s interesting that his suspension for two games has moved Percival out of the middle, and there’s now a decided cluster of replacement props at the left.

Looking at the concession diagrams,

Clark is higher up in this than expected.

Present for all 15 of them are Whitley, Welsby, Lomax and Clark. Mbye is present for the least with 2.

Whitley, Welsby and Lomax are ever presents so their presence makes sense. Clark’s less so.

The dendrogram is three clusters, and three straight lines:

Starting from the bottom, the first cluster is Matautia, Hurrell, Knowles, Lees and Walmsley, then there are the three straight lines of Mbye, Percival and Wingfield, then the frequently present cluster, and at the top is another forward cluster of Delaney, Bell and Sironen.

I do find it interesting that there’s two separate forward clusters, possibly suggesting forward pairings.

The matrix looks like a zoomed-in tartan.

The dark purple cluster is cut through by a single red-brown line, causing the tartan effect. The red-brown line is Makinson.

The Blake and Mata’utia, Mata’utia and Hurrell, Sironen and Bell and Bennison and Bell crossing squares are darker than expected, while the Bennison and Mata’utia, Makinson and Sironen, Mbye and Makinson and Walmsley and Sironen crossings are lighter than expected.

The concession network graph still only has 11 players on it.

It is now a central trio of Clark, Whitley and Lomax, surrounded by (clockwork from the top), Delaney, Welsby, Bennison, Makinson, Dodd, Blake, Sironen and Bell.

I’m not sure why Welsby is in the outer ring, not the middle.

I don’t think it’s quite at the point where I can guess the starting 17, but I think it’s getting there. I blame uncertainty around the forwards.

Saints Ahoy – Visualisations from game 5 and the season to date

I told you I was trying to catch up with everything that I’d missed. I am aware I am 3 rugby league games (about to be four) and 2 F1 races behind.

The Leeds Rhinos vs St Helens Saints league game (https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/leeds-rhinos-v-saints-2024-03-15/) was the first of two back-to-back games vs Leeds. Despite Leeds’s poor start to the season (by their standards), I was quite worried about this game.

Saints proceeded to not help matters by not turning up for the first quarter of the match.

When Saints conceded:

Bar chart showing when Saints conceded over the first five games. In pink are Leeds. All of their points were scored in the first 24 minutes.

This match was also the first time the Saints live text has let me down. I know Mbye must have come on before he scored, but it didn’t say when, so there’s now going to be a slight * against him and Clark’s data (because if he came on for anyone, it was Clark as they are our hookers). The advantage to getting data over a whole season is that one oops ought to be watered down.

Who scored for Saints up to game 5?

Bar chart. Percival is still top with 10 point-scoring moments, because he is the main kicker for Saints. Next, on four point-scoring moments each, are Welsby, Makinson, Lomax and Dodd, followed by Whitley on three, Bennison on two, and Walmsley, Mbye, Matautia, Knowles, Clark and Blake on 1.

With Percival missing the game due to being sent off in the last game (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/04/05/saints-ahoy-visualisations-from-game-4-and-the-season-to-date/), Lomax took over the kicking duties, which is why he has risen so far up that bar chart.

Okay, let’s look at point-scoring moments players were present for:

Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax and Dodd have been present for all 37 of the point-scoring moments for Saints. Davies has been present for the least with 4, then Mbye with 5 and Knowles with 9.

The dendrogram for when players are on the pitch together at Saints’s point-scoring moments has become more complex, there’s only really one true cluster left, of Lomax, Makinson, Dodd, Welsby and Whitley.

What is interesting is that there’s now two clear “families” of players, Lees, Knowles, Walmsley, Davies and Mbye in one, and everyone else in the other.

I know Lees and Knowles haven’t played as much as I would have expected, Davies barely at all, and Mbye only when they need to spell Clark, but I felt Walmsley had played more. So count one for stats telling you something you don’t feel.

The important points of the dendrogram are described in the text above.

On the other hand, the matrix diagram does have Walmsley in a darker colour than the others so maybe he is just very effective when he is on the pitch.

The matrix makes it look like three groups, the Lees, Knowles, Walmsley, Davies and Mbye one, then Bell, Sironen, Hurrell, Bennison, Matautia, Delaney, Percival and Wingfield, then finally the darker coloured group of Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd, Clark and Blake.

The network graph is now an interesting shape, with a central cluster with Walmsley, Lees and Knowles hanging off.

There is a slightly left offset central core of Delaney, Bell, Hurrell, Clark, Blake, Whitley, Welsby, Dodd, Lomax, Bennison, Percival, Sironen, Wingfield and Matautia. Hanging off the core are Walmsley, Lees and Knowles.

Looking at when Saints concede instead:

Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd and Clark have been present all 13 times Saints conceded. Then Blake and Bennison on 12. Walmsley and Lees are present for the least, with 3, then Percival and Matautia with 4 and Knowles and Hurrell for 5.

The players present for the most (Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd and Clark) are the ones that have been present the most when Saints score, with the exception of Clark who is sometimes swapped out for Mbye.

Looking at the players present for the least, Walmsley and Lees are present for the least, with 3, then Percival and Matautia with 4 and Knowles and Hurrell for 5, I’m starting to wonder if I have anyway of looking at it divided by time played, because I know Percival was being subbed out at 50 mins even before the sending off.

The concession dendrogram has the same pattern as the bar chart.

The concession matrix has an interesting pattern of colours

You would expect only one dark cluster, of Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd and Clark. That dark cluster is present, but there is a second dark cluster of Blake and Bennison, separated from the other by Sironen and Delaney (their own dark orange cluster), Wingfield (who is his own medium shade of orange) and Bell (darker orange than Wingfield, not as dark as Sironen and Delany). The points where Sironen, Delaney, Wingfield and Bell cross Matautia, Lees and Walmsley are so pale that it is clear that they do not play together.

I was only expecting one really dark cluster, not two, and the points where Sironen, Delaney, Wingfield and Bell cross Matautia, Lees and Walmsley are so pale that it is clear that they do not play together, so I think we can really start to see who the forward pairings are when Saints concede. Wingfield and Knowles don’t play together, and neither do Bell and Hurrell.

That Percival doesn’t play with Matautia, Lees and Walmsley is unexpected.

There are still only 11 players on the “when Saints concede” network diagram,

Welsby and Delaney are still in the centre, surrounded by (clockwise from top) Makinson, Blake, Whitley, Sironen, Lomax, Bennison, Clark, Dodd and Bell.

Saints Ahoy – Visualisations from game 4 and the season to date

L was slightly concerned that I hadn’t stated that I was a Saints fan quite loudly enough in my previous posts. I think it may become obvious throughout this summary of the Saints vs Salford match.

All winning runs have to come to an end, and 44 years is a pretty long time to not be beaten at home (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/68501496 / https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-salford-red-devils-2024-03-08/) and they needed Percival to get sent off for goodness knows what to beat Saints.

That does explain why Percival is, once again, alone in the dendrogram.

Dendrogram - players are in 4 groups. A large group with Blake, Bennison, Clark, Dodd, Lomax, Makinson, Sironen, Welsby and Whitley, then a second group of Bell, Delaney and Wingfield, a group of Matautia, Knowles and Walmsley, and Percival on his own.

It shows you that Sironen put one heck of a shift in to cover for Saints being a man down.

This match has an interesting effect on the “up to the end of game 4” charts.

When Saints score still hasn’t really built up into an informative pile of data, but point-scorers (no division between tries and kicks) is starting to.

Percival has the most point-scoring moments with 10, followed by Welsby, Dodd and Makinson on 4. Then there is Whitley on 3, then Walmsley, Matautia, Lomax, Knowles, Clark and Bennison.

Percival having the most moments makes sense, with him being the kicker (if only he could convert more often), and Dodd and Makinson who can also kick makes sense, Welsby up there highlights his wonderful poaching abilities. Whitley on 3 is an unexpected bonus. He’s working out well so far, isn’t he?

Point-scoring moments present for also highlights those players, and makes it clear Clark is definitely first choice hooker.

Point-scoring moments present for. Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax and Dodd in the joint lead with 31, then Sironen (who really is putting in some shifts), Mbye is at the bottom with 3, then Davies on 4 and Knowles on 6.

I do like how high up some of the academy grads are. I mean the most recent crop, not some of the older heads (help, Lomax is now an older head).

The matrix is starting to look complicated:

The dark purple patch is Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax and Dodd. The thing that catches my eye is that Bennison is a much darker orange than I would expect for where he is in the diagram. It suggests not on often, put plays with the heavy point scorers when he does.
Sironen is at the centre of the diagram. Around him are (starting from top and moving clockwise) Dodd, Clark, Lomax, Blake, Percival, Whitley, Makinson and Welsby. The outer ring are Matautia, Lees, Walmsley, Bell, Hurrell, Delaney, Wingfield and Bennison.

The network diagram does give a nice matchday 17 – Sironen, Dodd, Clark, Lomax, Blake, Percival, Whitley, Makinson, Welsby, Matautia, Lees, Walmsley, Bell, Hurrell, Delaney, Wingfield and Bennison.

Because Salford scored several points, there’s now enough data to have some solid numbers for “players present when Saints concede”. The only problem is it won’t include Percival as much as it maybe should given his sending off was sort of responsible for some of the concessions.

Whitley, Welsby, Sironen, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd, Delaney and Clark are present for the most with 10, followed by Blake, Bennison and Bell with 9, Wingfield with 8, Percival with 4, Knowles and Hurrell on 2 and Matautia with 1.

Percival is also a darker colour than expected on the concession matrix.

The dark purple patch is Whitley, Welsby, Sironen, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd, Delaney and Clark. Percival is a darker sand colour, even though he is at the top of the diagram where I expect much paler colours.

The network diagram for players present when Saints concede only has 11 players on.

In the centre, like binary stars, are Welsby and Lomax, they are surrounded by (clockwise from the top) Sironen, Clark, Delaney, Blake, Bennison, Dodd, Makinson, Whitley and Bell.

The diagrams are mostly making me appreciate Sironen at lot more.

There’s a reason why Saints fans rate him.

Saints Ahoy – Visualisations from game 3 and the season to date

Saints beat Leigh 12 – 4 in what I believe would be best described as an arm-wrestle (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/68438335 / https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-leigh-leopards-2024-03-01/).

Matters were helped by not having Saints players subbed off injured like last time and John Asiata getting sin binned.

Looking at game 3 in isolation:

Which players were present when Saints scored?

Bar chart showing how many point-scoring moments Saints players were present for. Wingfield, Whitley, Welsby, Percival, Makinson, Lomax, Hurrell, Dodd, Delaney, Bennison and Bell were present for all 4, Mbye and Matautia for 3, Sironen and Clark were present for 2.

It’s nice to see Mbye getting some game time.

The game 3 dendrogram shows the same pattern as the grouping for how many point-scoring moments they were present for:

The top cluster is Mbye and Matautia, followed by the largest cluster of Wingfield, Whitley, Welsby, Percival, Makinson, Lomax, Hurrell, Dodd, Delaney, Bennison and Bell and then the bottom cluster of Sironen and Clark.

The matrix shows the same, but with top and bottom swapped

The top, palest, cluster is Sironen and Clark, followed by the largest cluster of Wingfield, Whitley, Welsby, Percival, Makinson, Lomax, Hurrell, Dodd, Delaney, Bennison and Bell and then the bottom cluster of Mbye and Matautia.

Mbye and Matautia and Sironen and Clark not sharing time makes sense, given its a forward and a hooker and another forward and a hooker.

Now, the season to date:

The point-scoring moments players were present for:

Operation “Wrap Percival in Cotton Wool” is very apparent. Sironen is doing more minutes than I realised.

Now looking at the actual scorers and when they scored:

Coloured bar chart of who scored when. A pleasingly gaussian curve, with the centre at 51 and 52 minutes

I just think it’s pretty.

Percival, despite everything, had the most point-scoring moments with 8, then Makinson with 4, Whitley and Welsby on 3, then Walmsley, Matautia, Lomax, Knowles, Dodd, Clark and Bennison on 1.

The dendrogram is now a lot more complicated.

The present for all points cluster of Lomax, Dodd, Makinson, Welsby and Whitley is together. All the others are separate.

That complication is reflected in the matrix, where there’s now a block of solid purple, the red, then the mixed part which is the players who sub on and off frequently, then the very top, palest rows, which are the players who haven’t played often (yet).

The purple section of players who most often play together is Whitley, Welsby, Makinson, Lomax and Dodd. The next most frequently together red group are Sironen, Blake and Clark. The mixed section as I called it are Percival, Hurrell, Bell, Lees, Delaney, Bennison, Wingfield, Matautia and Walmsley. The least played so far section at the top is Knowles, Mbye and Davies.

The network graph for the season is 17, which is a nice number for a squad.

The central section is Bell, Welsby, Lomax, Clark, Dodd, Whitley, Sironen, Blake, Percival. The outer ring are, clockwise, Hurrell, Lees, Bennison, Matautia, Wingfield, Delaney and Walmsley.

The Saints defence conceded against Leigh. Having only conceded two point-scoring moments in three games (versus creating 25 point-scoring moments), it feels petty to name players present.

One interesting pattern, on an N of 2 mind you, is that both points were conceded in minutes 40-50 (44 and 46 to be precise). That’s just after half time so I’m wondering if it’s Saints not being fully switched on when they first come back.

Or I’m being hyper-critical and impossible. Which is very possible.

Saints Ahoy – Visualisations from game 2 and the season to date

This is the second post in my 2024 Super League data visualisation project (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/category/saints-ahoy-rugby-league-project-2024/). Yes, I know I’m two days late, but there was a work trip in midweek

Included will be the game 2 visualisations, and the visualisations covering games 1 and 2. What there won’t be is the defensive visualisations, because Saints kept Huddersfield to nil in the game (https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/match/EVP4369771), so there’s still only one data point there.

As a Saints fan, this pleases me immensely. I’m fully behind “Saints, the entertainers” but a lot of that flair comes naturally (The Saints Way etc), so defensive solidity is a nice addition. The best Saints teams have combined both.

A fuller report on the Saints vs Huddersfield match can be found here – https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/huddersfield-giants-v-saints-2024-02-24/

The game 2 dendrogram again shows that central core of players who play most of the game, the prop swaps, and that Saints are continuing the policy of wrapping Percival up in cotton wool once the game is won. I still approve.

Dendrogram, all the useful information is in the description above.

This time, Walmsley was the one with the short stint at the start. Which suggests that it’s strategic, not injury related (despite the news about Matty Lees coughing up blood – https://www.saintsrlfc.com/2024/02/26/medical-update-on-matty-lees/)

Line chart showing when players were on the pitch when Saints scored

Line chart showing when players were on the pitch when Saints scored. Whitley, Welsby, Sironen, Makinson, Lomax, Lees, Dodd, Clark, Blake, Bennison and Knowles played the whole match, Percival was taken off around 50 minutes, Wingfield and Mata'utia came on later on, Bell did a stint in the middle and Walmsley had a mini-cameo at the start.

Game 2 Matrix diagram

Dark purple cluster of Whitley, Welsby, Sironen, Makinson, Lomax, Lees, Dodd, Clark, Bennison and Blake. Percival is the darkest orange but separated from them because he left the pitch early. Knowles, Mata'utia and Wingfield are the next shade down, reflecting the rolling substitutions, then Bell, then Walmsley the palest, reflecting his single stint.

The darkest cluster are Whitley, Welsby, Sironen, Makinson, Lomax, Lees, Dodd, Clark, Bennison and Blake who played the whole game. Percival is the darkest orange but separated from them because he left the pitch early.

Knowles, Matautia and Wingfield are the next shade down, reflecting the rolling substitutions, then Bell, then Walmsley the palest, reflecting his single stint.

There are fewer players in the network diagram than last time (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2024/02/21/saints-ahoy-rugby-league-data-visualisation-2024/)

The network diagram:

Whitley is in the centre of the diagram, surrounded by (starting at 12 if it was clock) Sironen, Makinson, Welsby, Lomax, Bennison, Lees, Blake, Clark and Dodd.

I hadn’t realised how central Whitley was, but I can believe it.

If we look at the combined data sets they look like this.

Season to date data visualisations

Who scored points for Saints? – with the note that it’s point-scoring moments, not number of points.

Percival has the most with 6, followed by Whitley and Makinson on 3, then Welsby on 2. Walmsley, Mata'utia, Lomax, Knowles, Dodd, Clark and Bennison are on one.

Despite being taken off early, and all the missed conversions which will undoubtedly haunt us come the big matches, Percival has had the most point-scoring moments.

Dendrogram year to date:

Wingfield and Mata'utia are their own mini-cluster at the top. Then Lees and Bennison, then Knowles on his own. There is a central cluster of Dodd, Blake, Lomax, Makinson, Sironen, Welsby, Whitley, with Clark dangling off to the side. Then there is Percival, who is there for all the point-scoring moments until he gets subbed off at 50 minutes. Then Walmsley and Hurrell make a mini-cluster, with Bell dangling off, then Davies and Delaney.

There are some clear prop clusters, Wingfield and Mata’utia, Walmsley, Hurrell and Bell. The Davies and Delaney cluster is pleasing to see because it suggests they’re slowly blooding them in.

It looks like the spine of the team are Dodd, Blake, Lomax, Makinson, Sironen, Welsby, Whitley and Clark. Percival is there for all the point-scoring moments until he gets subbed off at 50 minutes.

This pattern is also seen in the matrix diagram:

Dark purple cluster of Whitley, Welsby, Sironen, Makinson, Lomax, Dodd, Clark and Blake. Next darkest are orange are Percival and Bell. Then Hurrell. The next palest are Hurrell, Lees and Walmsley. Then Bennison, Wingfield and Delaney. Then Mata'utia. The palest colours are Davies and Knowles.

The matrix reflects the dendrogram, but you can also see some interesting patterns, like Bell and Knowles not playing together, Hurrell playing less with Lees, Bennison and Knowles and so on. These patterns will both strengthen during the season and might get more mixed up as injuries (and suspensions) take their toll.

The network diagram looks like this:

There are two rings of players. The central one contains (from the top) Dodd, Clark, Makinson, Welsby, Blake, Sironen, Lomax and Whitley. Percival lies just slightly outside this ring. Then the second ring, which surrounds the first, contains Wingfield, Mata'utia, Delaney, Walmsley, Hurrell, Bell, Bennison and Lees.


It’s interesting that two games in there’s already a clear central core and then a secondary ring.

Will have the data from the Leigh game inputted when I get an hour to spare.

Saints Ahoy – Rugby League Data Visualisation 2024

Introduction:

After my reasonably successful posts on England at the 2021 World Cup (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2022/12/29/rugby-league-world-cup-2021-final-network-diagram/), I was considering an expanded project. Both the 2021 Rugby League World Cup and the 2023 Rugby Union World Cups (https://fulltimesportsfan.wordpress.com/2023/11/01/the-road-to-explicableness-a-closer-look-at-england-after-their-seventh-world-cup-game/) demonstrated that, understandably, with each extra game, the stronger the data got, and the clearer the shapes of the teams got.

The effect was stronger for the England rugby league team than the union team because, I think, Shaun Wane didn’t have his chosen playmaker suspended for 3/7 games, and because he had a much clearer idea of who his first team were than Steve Borthwick did.

Taking these two ideas together, I thought, why not follow a rugby league team through their season and see what the data shows?

My beloved Saints were an obvious choice.

Then I realised that, while nrl.com has all the information I could possible need, the Super League’s website doesn’t even have match reports.

Cue sad me scrabbling for a replacement team, and hitting on St. George Illawarra, who have both a similar name and a similar jersey. They were a decent replacement.

I was checking in on St. Helens’s first game of the season on twitter (https://twitter.com/Saints1890) and realised that the twitter feed normally has most of the information I need. And then I remembered that my beloved Saints use that feed to do the “as it happened” section of their match reports (example from the first match of the year here – https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-london-broncos-2024-02-16/) so I don’t even need to do it live or almost live.

I love Saints so much.

Game 1:

Saints’ first game was against the London Broncos, who were promoted to the Super League at the end of the 2023 season.

You can read match reports here – https://www.saintsrlfc.com/matches/2024/first-team/saints-v-london-broncos-2024-02-16/ or https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-league/68304742 depending if you want “focussed on Saints” or “more evenly interested in both teams”. I am with the section of fans pleased with the result and performance given it was the first match of the season, but concerned about the number of missed conversions. When Saints play stronger teams, dropping points like that could hurt Saints.

As London only scored four points, I’m not showing the “players on the pitch when Saints conceded points” diagrams. (Although, from a fan’s perspective, well played on defence Saints 🙂 )

The “players on the pitch when Saints scored” is already quite interesting after one game, because you can already see the cluster of players who play lots of minutes and the prop combinations that play together:

Dendrogram after the first game. There is one large group, containing Dodd, Blake, Hurrell, Lomax, Makinson, Sironen, Welsby and Whitley, who were present for all the point-scoring moments. The only other cluster is Walmsley and Bell, who therefore played together often, suggesting they are one of the prop lines that Saints use together.

I expected the larger group, didn’t expect Bell and Walmsley to be played together that much. It suggests that they are one of the prop pairings this season.

The paler squares in the next diagram indicate the players who aren’t on the pitch at the same time when Saints score, suggesting they don’t play together.

Matrix diagram, the dark red/purple cluster is odd, Blake, Hurrell, Lomax, Makinson, Sironen, Welsby and Whitley. Walmsley and Bell both have very pale squares for Wingfield and Mata'utia. This suggests that Wingfield and Matautia are the other prop line. Percival has a lighter line than those around him because he was taken off early.

From this it looks like Walmsley and Bell didn’t play at the same time as Wingfield and Mata’utia, suggesting Wingfield and Mata’utia are the other prop line.

Percival has a lighter line than those around him because he was taken off early. I am entirely on team “wrap him in cotton wool once the match is won”.

The network diagram already shows 13 players who were on the pitch together when Saints score. They wouldn’t be a bad first 13:

Network diagram only shows 13 players, they are Bell, Whitley, Hurrell, Delaney, Makinson, Lomax, Sironen, Dodd, Clark, Walmsley, Blake, Welsby and Percival.

The “when the players were on the pitch” diagram highlights one interesting thing:

Line chart. Longer lines show when players have been on the pitch for all of the scoring moments. The line for Matty Lees starts at 0, and stops at about 5.

Matty Lees got taken off early on and did not come back on. I haven’t seen anything about him being injured so that’s odd.

Looking forward to doing this for the rest of the season. Each post is likely to be “figures for that game” and “figures for the season up to the end of that game.”

The road to explicableness – A closer look at England after their seventh World Cup game

I’ve spent the rest of these posts complaining that the diagrams of who plays with who when England score and concede make little sense.

Following the third place play-off match they have started to make more sense. I think it’s because it was the 4th match were Steve Borthwick was able to play his preferred team (built around his preferred fly-half and captain Owen Farrell) vs the three where he couldn’t due to Farrell’s suspension.

The “who scored”, and “when did they score” charts have always made sense.

Bar chart showing which players had the most point-scoring moments for England. Owen Farrell has the largest bar with 30, far more than George Ford, in second with 14.
Bar chart showing when England had point scoring moments. They are reasonably well distributed across the 80 minutes.
Same chart as before, coloured by which player scored. Red-pink is George Ford, light brown is Henry Arundell, green is Joe Marchant, sort of teal is Marcus Smith, Owen Farrell is purple and bright pink is Theo Dan. Points scored by others are in blue. They are also evenly spread.

Of the 65 point-scoring moments for England, Ben Earl was present for the most (51/65), followed by Joe Marchant, Owen Farrell and Maro Itoje.

Bar chart showing which England players were on the pitch when they had point-scoring moments. Important details are in the text.

Jack Walker and Sam Underhill were present for the least (7 and 8 respectively), which makes sense because they only took part in 1 game each. Bevan Rodd was present for 13 over 2 games.

The dendrogram makes it clear how mix-and-matchy the squads put out were:

Dendrogram - almost no players are clustered together, with there only being 1 small cluster of Jack Willis and David Ribbans.

But the matrix network diagram now clearly shows who the “chosen 15” were, followed by the “sometimes” played and then, palest in the top left, the “I’m only playing you because I have to”.

Matrix diagram. The darker colours (indicating players who play together) are in the bottom right, with the middle section looking like TV static, and then fading to pale in the top and left.

(I’m being slightly mean to Steve Borthwick there, it’s clear that he would have played Theo Dan only he’s an excellent future replacement for Jamie George when he retires, but Jamie George is still there)

The network diagram is less clear, with a general mush with Underhill, Walker and Rodd the outliers.

Network diagram. It's a giant mush, with Sam Underhill sticking out on the right hand side. He is the clearest outlier, Jack Walker and Bevan Rodd stick out a little on the left and Dan Cole at the top of the diagram.

England played Argentina twice in this tournament, so I’ve labelled the 3rd place play-off team “Argentina2”. (England rugby league have done this to me before, so I was prepared.)

This Argentina team scored the joint most points against England at this tournament.

Bar chart of point scoring moments for teams playing against England, Fiji and Argentina2 are tied with the most with 7, followed by South Africa and Samoa with 5, then Japan with 4, and Argentina (from the first game) with 3. Chile aren't on the chart because they didn't score.

The pattern have of England conceding in minute 20-30 and 60-70 remained.

(Two more charts, one with when England conceded, and then that chart coloured by which team scored against England)

Bar chart of when England conceded. The peak is at 28 minutes when 4 point-scoring moments were conceded.
Same chart as before, but now coloured by which team did the scoring. Argentina from the first game are the red-pink, Argentina 2 the brown, Fiji the green, Japan blue, Samoa darker blue and South Africa pink.

Maro Itoje, Ben Earl and Joe Marchant were on the pitch for the most point-concession moments, but they were on the pitch a lot.

Bar chart showing how many point concessions England players were present for. Highlights of data below.

They were on for 31/31 point-conceding moments. David Ribbans, Bevan Rodd and George Martin (no, not that one) were present for the least, present for 1,2 and 4 point-conceding moments respectively.

The dendrogram and the matrix for point-concessions are less clear.

Dendrogram of England players together when they conceded. Very few clusters, one covering Marchant, Itoje and Earl, the other covering Sam Underhill and Harry Arundell (because Underhill's only game was vs Argentina 2, and Arundell only played in that game and the Chile game where England didn't concede).
Matrix diagram of players who played together when England conceded. This again has the players together for the most in darker colours in the bottom right, but it fades to pale a lot quicker than the scoring matrix.

But the network diagram is fascinating, with the central 12 players giving a good idea of who Borthwick’s chosen are (Elliot Daly, Jonny May, Ollie Chessum, Jamie George, Joe Marchant, Maro Itoje, Courtney Lawes, Owen Farrell, Ben Earl, Freddie Stewart, Manu Tuilagi and Tom Curry).

Network diagram which looks like several concentric stars - there is a central 12 players, the most commonly together (Elliot Daly, Jonny May, Ollie Chessum, Jamie George, Joe Marchant, Maro Itoje, Courtney Lawes, Owen Farrell, Ben Earl, Freddie Stewart, Manu Tuilagi and Tom Curry). Outside these are the next layer of "frequently played" (George Ford and Alex Mitchell), then the less frequently played but still often enough to feature (Kyle Sinckler, Joe Marler, Ollie Lawrence, Danny Care, Theo Dan, Will Stuart, Marcus Smith, Ellis Genge and Dan Cole).

I hope you’ve enjoyed reading these as much as I have making them.

Rugby Union World Cup 2023 – A closer look at England after their sixth game

I know I’ve said a lot about England being inexplicable this World Cup, and wasn’t that performance in the semifinal the most inexplicable of the lot. Who was expecting such a strong performance against South Africa?

Who had point-scoring moments for England?

Bar chart showing players with point scoring moments for England. Owen Farrell has the most with 24, Chessum, Tuilagi, Ludlam, Willis, Steward, Care, Lawes and Rodd have the least (of those who have scored) with 1. It's very tilted toward Farrell and Ford, the kickers.

Which once again highlights England’s reliance on their kickers.

When do England score?

Bar chart showing when England score. It's well spaced, with the most points coming in the 80th minute (with 4).

The pattern of not scoring as many in the first 20 minutes remains.

England point-scoring moments by time and player:

Bar chart showing England point-scoring moments by player and time. It's quite a mix of colours, and times.

The dendrogram shows that there’s no continuity of England players who play together when England score

Dendrogram, there are no clusters of players who often play together when England score.

This is also seen in the matrix view and the network diagram

Matrix diagram of England players on the pitch at the same time as each other when England score. There's a darker cluster (play together more often) at the bottom right, centre on
Network diagram of the same thing. There's clearly two blobs, one larger than the other, linked by a couple of players, plus 3 outliers (Will Stuart, Ben Youngs and Jack Walker)

The network diagram makes it particularly clear, because there’s two separate lumps, with a couple of players linking them.

If we look at point-concessions instead, England concede in the 20-30th moment of each half.

Bar chart showing when England concede points. It is also well spread, with the most being 4 point-scoring moments in the 28th minute.

I think Borthwick played Steward because he trusts him more than Smith defensively, which is supported by South Africa having fewer point-scoring moments than Fiji did.

When England conceded points by time and nation. South Africa (pink) appear less often than Fiji (olive green).

I know there’s a suggestion that Borthwick maybe should have changed to a more attacking formation 5 minutes earlier, but England wouldn’t have been able to do that if they hadn’t been building on a solid defence.

While Elliot Daly is still the player present for the most point scoring moments for England (44/57 moments):

England players present for point-scoring moments. Elliot Daly is the most with 44/57. He is followed by Earl and Marchant. Least is Jack Walker with 7, Ben Youngs with 11 and Bevan Rodd with 12.

Itoje, Earl and Marchant were present for the most concessions (24/24 concession moments).

Bar chart showing England players present when they concede. Itoje, Marchant and Earl are present for the most (24/24), with Theo Dan present for the least (2), followed by Marcus Smith and Will Stuart (3).

The concession dendrogram looks like this:

The concession dendrogram. Players are more clustered than the scoring dendrogram but not by much.

The concession matrix looks more like I would expect a matrix diagram to look:

Matrix diagram of players who play together when England concede. The bottom right is darker (more frequently together) with the diagram getting paler as you go up to the top left. The dark purple part is Itoje, Marchant and Earl.

And the 20 players in the network diagram for concessions give a good idea of who England’s first 22 are.

Network diagram of players on the pitch together when England concede. There is a central core with other players round them. The central core are (clockwise from top) Marchant, Earl, May, Chessum, George, Lawes, Mitchell and Tuilagi, with Itoje right in the centre. The players round the edge (again clockwise) are Marler, Sinckler, Lawrence, Care, Curry, Farrell, Genge, Cole, Ford and Steward.

Since Borthwick has made it clear that he’s going to use the 3rd place match to give players who’ve not had much game time a go, I think all the diagrams are going to get even more confused.

Rugby Union World Cup 2023 – A closer look at England after their fourth game

I am not convinced that Steve Borthwick knows what his best team is. L has said you don’t need fancy stats to see that, just watch them play, but the visualisations really do back the statement up.

I think it’s clearest in the dendrogram of England players together on the pitch when they score:

Dendrogram after 4 matches. Importantly, there are no players clustered together.

There’s no clusters of players often on the pitch together at the same time, which reflects players not playing together, which means they don’t have the chance to gel.

The players who score points for England also shows this (the X-axis is point-scoring moments):

Bar chart showing point scoring moments after 4 matches, George Ford has 14, Owen Farrell 11, Henry Arundell 5, Theo Dan and Marcus Smith 2, then Ollie Chessum, Lewis Ludlam, Joe Marchant, Jack Willis, Freddie Steward, Danny Care, Courtney Lawes and Bevan Rodd on 1.

You’ve got the kickers and then no-one else consistently scoring (Arundell’s were all in one game).

England point-scorers by time and scorer

England-point-scoring-moments-by-time-and-player-after-4

England still have fewer point-scoring moments in the first 20 minutes than the other quarter chunks.

Elliot Daly has been present for the most point-scoring moments

Number of point-scoring moments England players were present for. Elliot Daly has the most with 30 (out of 42). Tom Curry has the least, probably because he was sent off 3 minutes into the first game, then banned for the other two.

Elliot Daly being present for the most out of everyone (30/42) is reflected in the equally confused looking matrix and network diagrams. (He’s the unexpectedly dark line in the middle of the pale patch). The top left cluster of players are those who played against Chile, the bottom right is the players Borthwick used in the rest of the games.

Matrix diagram showing players who were together when England scored. There are two darker patches (the top left is those who played against Chile, the bottom right is the players Borthwick used in the rest of the games.)
Network graph after 4 games. It's a mess.

At the same point of the Rugby League World Cup, I could guess who would be picked. Here, I’ve got no chance.

The dendrogram of the players together when England conceded is a little more clumped, possibly due to fewer data points (and Chile not scoring)

Dendrogram showing players who were together when England conceded. It's less messy than the one for who was present when England scored.

The network diagrams and matrix are also clearer when looking at who was present when England conceded.

Matrix diagram showing who was present together when England conceded. There's only one cluster (Maro Itoje, Jonny May and Joe Marchant).
Network diagram of players present when England concede, much clearer than the equivalent diagram for when England score. The players are (running clockwise from 12 o'clock) Manu Tuilagi, Joe Marchant, Alex Mitchell, Courtney Lawes, Maro Itoje, Freddie Steward, Jamie George, Ben Earl, Ollie Chessum, with George Ford and Jonny May in the middle.

Not that I can explain why Elliot Daly isn’t on these diagrams.

My heart belongs to Fiji anyway (or as one of the ITV team put it “everyone’s second favourite team, unless they’re playing your first team”), and if Fiji cut out the handling errors, it could be an interesting match.

Rugby Union World Cup 2023 – A closer look at England after their third game

Following three England games, what do the various charts look like now?

The “when do England score?” chart now looks like this

Bar chart of when England score. Minutes 45 and 80 have the most point scoring moments with 3 each. The rest are reasonably spread out.

It’s not distinct, but it’s interesting that if you split it into 20 minute chunks you get the following pattern:
Minutes 0-20 = 3 point scoring moments
21-40 = 13
41-60 = 11
61-80 = 10

England spend the first 20 minutes feeling their opposition out.

Who scores for England?

Bar chart of who scores for England. George Ford is still at the top, with 14 point-scoring moments, far ahead of Owen Farrell who is second with 8.

In which Steve Borthwick has created himself a problem because yes, Arundell has scored more than the player he replaced, but against Chile who are probably the weakest team in that pool.

England’s point-scoring moments by time and player:

The point-scoring bar chart coloured in by who scored.

That’s an interesting number of unconverted tries.

Because of the number of changes for the England vs Chile game, no England players have been present for all of England’s points-scoring moments

Bar chart of the number of point scoring moments England players were present for. Elliot Daly is in the lead with 30. Of players who have been present for scoring moments, Dan Cole has been present for the least (5).

Elliot Daly has been present for the most, 30 out of the 37 point-scoring moments England have had.

The dendrogram looks like this

Dendrogram of which players were on the pitch with each other when England score.

This should explain who some of the missing names are in the matrix figure that comes next. (I promise I’ll tidy them up once my leg is fixed).

The matrix itself looks like this.

Matrix diagram showing which players were present at the same time as each other when England scored. There are two darker areas (indicating present together more often), one in the top left hand corner and one in the bottom right. It's an indication that there have been lots of changes between games. It's almost like Steve Borthwick has two England teams. Elliot Daly (top name on the y-axis, and lefter-most on the x-axis) is the one player who has been present with most players when England have scored points (indicated by his whole line being dark)

Although at least now they’re staggered the way I was expecting so you can put them together quite easily.

The matrix diagram really shows the number of changes from the other two matches to the Chile match, and that there have been almost two different England teams, linked by Elliot Daly.

Instead of being one clear network, this looks like two or three piled on top of each other.

I present a very odd looking blob.

There are no changes to the concession diagrams, because Chile didn’t score. It wasn’t through lack of trying though, and they have heart and spirit. In the spirit of raising my hat, I present England Rugby’s video from Instagram.